Power Date Report #1: Google data center campus, Botetourt County, Virginia

Issued: 24 October 2026 · Version: 1 · Next review: after 2 December 2026 (comment and hearing-request deadline)

The answer

What this date means: the month when Appalachian Power's new lines and substations can deliver the full ~300 MW to the campus. It does not include delays on the customer's own site.

1. The project

A new data center campus at the Botetourt Center at Greenfield, near Daleville, has asked Appalachian Power (APCo) for about 300 MW at 138 kV [3][4]. The filing names only "a customer"; news reports identify it as Google [8]. The existing local grid can't carry that load, so APCo has applied to the Virginia State Corporation Commission (SCC) for the Daleville Area Transmission Improvements Project (case PUR-2026-00132) [1][2]. It covers:

• about 19.5 miles of existing lines rebuilt or re-wired, mostly upgraded from 69 kV to 138 kV;
• a new Windy Pass 138-kV substation, plus upgrades at four existing substations;
• two new parallel 1.3-mile feeder lines into the campus.

Estimated cost is $264 million ($143M for substations, $121M for lines), paid by the customer [2, p.4].

2. Where it stands

APCo says it needs "approximately two years after entry of the Commission's final approving order" to engineer, buy equipment and build, and it has asked the SCC to expedite its review [3, pp.xv-xvi].

3. How we got our date

We compared Daleville with 38 past Virginia SCC transmission cases (2018-2025; 7 APCo, 31 Dominion). For each one we recorded when it was filed, when it was approved, the in-service date it promised, and when it actually entered service (or its latest projected date in PJM's records) [6][7].

Step 1: approval. The SCC put Daleville on the faster notice-and-comment path, without a hearing. Comparable cases got a final order a median 1.3 months after the Staff Report (range 0.8-3.3). Daleville is larger and more complex than those cases, so we lean later: final order around April 2027 (March-May). If a hearing is requested and granted, cases with hearings took a median 8.8 months from filing, which puts approval around August 2027.

Step 2: build time. Utilities promise a median 25.6 months after approval, and finished projects actually took a median 24.9 months. APCo's "about two years" is normal. With an April 2027 order, its November 2029 date has about 7 months of cushion.

Step 3: slip. This is where data center projects differ. Of 9 mature data center cases, 7 finished late, by a median of 17 months. Only 2 of 9 reliability rebuilds were late. In 3 of those 7, though, the customer's own site caused the delay. Counting only utility-side delays, customer-driven projects slipped a median +1.9 months, with a 90th percentile of +19 months. We then adjust later for two Daleville-specific facts:

• Its work is mostly rebuilding lines that must stay energized, which needs many planned outages. That's what slowed APCo's Fieldale-Ridgeway rebuild by about 18 months.
• APCo's recent projects (Fieldale-Ridgeway, Stuart, Abingdon) are all running behind their promised dates.

Result: a median of February 2030, an early case of November 2029 and a late case of mid-2031.

4. What could move the date

Later, roughly in order of how often it caused delays in our sample:

1. Outage scheduling. PJM-approved outages are limited to low-demand seasons, so missing a window can cost months. It appeared in 4 extension motions.
2. Equipment supply. Transformers and breakers have long lead times. It appeared in 3 motions.
3. A hearing. A request filed by 2 December 2026 and granted would add about 3 months to approval. The cushion absorbs part of that.
4. Land rights. The Windy Pass site is on property still to be purchased, and the feeders run on customer land. Land issues appeared in 5 motions.
5. The route. It crosses the Appalachian Trail four times, plus I-81 and the Norfolk Southern railway twice each [2, pp.10-12].

Earlier: a quick final order (February-March 2027) plus on-time construction would let APCo deliver before its target. However, none of the 12 customer-driven projects in our sample finished meaningfully early.

5. Signposts we are watching

6. Track record

This forecast is dated and will be graded against the actual in-service date. Updates will be issued as new versions, and earlier versions stay published unchanged.

Sources

1. SCC DocketSearch, case PUR-2026-00132: https://www.scc.virginia.gov/docketsearch#/caseDetails/147168
2. SCC Order for Notice and Comment, 7 Oct 2026: https://www.scc.virginia.gov/docketsearch/DOCS/8f1801%21.PDF
3. APCo Application, Vol. 1 (Application, Response to Guidelines and Exhibits), pp. xv-xvi and Sec. II.B.10: https://www.scc.virginia.gov/docketsearch/DOCS/8%23gw01%21.PDF
4. Direct Testimony of N. C. Koehler, P.E. (300 MW; PJM Attachment M-3, 15 May 2026): https://www.scc.virginia.gov/docketsearch/DOCS/8%23gx01%21.PDF
5. APCo project page and fact sheet: https://aeptransmission.com/Virginia/DalevilleArea/
6. powerdate comparables study (38 cases, sourced row by row): data/comparables.csv, research/comparables-findings.md
7. PJM Project Status and Cost Allocation: https://www.pjm.com/planning/m/project-construction
8. Cardinal News, 16 Sep 2026: https://cardinalnews.org/2026/09/16/new-details-emerge-about-botetourt-grid-upgrades-for-google-data-center/

This forecast is based only on public information. It is not investment advice.